Hive FPL GW6 Preview - I got 114 problems but my picks ain't one
Welcome back Hive FPL for game week 6 of the 26/27 season.
To be honest after a 2 week break, it feels like we're starting the campaign all over again, something that any Spurs supporter would probably be quite happy to consider!
If you're hoping for some kind of analysis on the form of Premier League players while away on international duty then I'm afraid you'll need to look elsewhere because I've had very little interest in following those results.
Equally, whether performances in those games really translates back into club form is questionable. Will for example, Viktor Gykores get any additional minutes at Arsenal having scored in all 4 matches for Sweden? Can Bruno Fernandes deliver the kind of consistency he demonstrated for Portugal when he pulls on a United shirt?
Beyond the fact that competitions like the Nations League lack that real intensity to make them watchable sport, there have, of course, been other things going on in the world of football that have sucked the oxygen from the room.
Man City's 114 guilty charges by the Premier League seem likely to be a story that will roll on for months if not years (beyond the 8 years they have already been going on for).
What would be reasonable punishment for City?
It also adds a degree of farce to the remainder of the season. City are top of the league, the only side with a 100% record to date and yet, it seems ridiculous to consider that they won't receive a substantial points deduction.
City maintain their innocence and to date have done everything in their significant power to block this 8 year investigation from coming to a conclusion. Therefore, it also doesn't seem unreasonable to think that any sanctions that are imposed may not even be in place this season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XmpaClDlSw
City on appeal
If that were the case and City were later found guilty on appeal then beyond the 8 seasons we've already had where they cheated, you'd really have to question the validity of this season in particular. If the Premier League doesn't handle the matter effectively and efficiently then you do start to wonder about its future and the potential for break away leagues to develop.
This may be an unpopular opinion and I'm sure it will be amusing to watch City squirm while they have the rule book shoved up their their backsides, but honestly, who gives a shit if wealthy individuals or groups want to invest their money in a club? Isn't that generally considered a good thing for the industry as a whole?
Given that most clubs in the world would not be financially sustainable without the fees that they acquire from selling on the transfer market, why would you try and regulate how much money can flow into the sport in that manner?
I 100% agree that regulation needs to take place to keep the sport competitive on the pitch but that requires things like salary caps and limits on squad numbers not on how much investment comes into the game and the need therefore to hide that investment.
Rant over - let's go back to actually taking about football rather than money!
Popular clubs for fantasy picks like City, Liverpool, United and Spurs go up against each other, meaning that their players have the potential to take away points from each other.
Outside of that, the fixtures to target can be found in London with Arsenal, Chelsea and Fulham playing at home but even then, I wouldn't be overly confident on the outcome of those games.
The Gunners were soundly beaten in their last match before the break with Brighton scoring 3 goals past their usually resolute defence. For now, you can chalk that up to a one-off blip with Arsenal having conceded just once in their 4 league games prior to that. However, Leeds will certainly be keen to test that theory and they come into the fixture unbeaten in the league this season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YtYpeFmigU
You have to go all the way back to 2003 for the last time Leeds got points from an away trip to Arsenal. The Aussie duo of Kewell and Viduka scoring to ensure that Leeds stayed up while Arsenal handed the title to Manchester United.
Chelsea meanwhile have been very entertaining to watch but have conceded at least twice in all 5 matches so far this season and have taken just a point from their last 3 games.
October feels like a crucial month for Xavi Alonso and his side with a home game this weekend against Bournemouth and 2 more big matches at Stamford Bridge against Spurs and United to follow.
The Cherries are winless to date but their overall performances have been much better than the league table suggests. Their expected points this season is 7.76, the 8th highest in the league. The difference between their xP and actual points (4.76) is the highest in the division.
If games finished at HT
The issues that have plauged both Chelsea and Bournemouth this season have been later in matches when they've tended to fade. Chelsea's first goal of the game has come on average in the 29th minute, Bournemouth's in the 34th ranking them 1 and 2 on that metric. In fact, if matches finished at half-time, Bournemouth would be top of the league! That they aren't, tells you all you need to know about how they are finishing games at present.
Fulham were unlucky not to get their first win of the season against United last time out and they also took a point at Anfield in the match prior to that. While both decent results, you feel that Arbeloa and his side need to start getting wins as they hit a sequence of matches against all 3 promoted clubs.
Away from home Fulham been very compact, conceding just once at Sunderland while at the same time failing to score themselves on their travels.
Ipswich do have 2 victories but defensively are still looking suspect with no clean sheet this season and only Chelsea having conceded more frequently than the Tractor Boys.
Ipswich matches have produced an average of 3.6 goals per game this season (3rd highest in the league) so this one could go either way. Will it produce attacking returns for FPL managers or is it worth looking at defenders should Fulham revert to type?
David Affengruber (DEF) - Another Fulham player but not one on most people's radar. The Austrian centre-back was a late summer signing for the Cottagers but now appears to be Arbeloa's favoured option in the heart of defence ahead of FPL favourite Joachim Anderson. He's picked up def con bonuses in both his games so far and was agonisingly close to getting a 2nd clean sheet until he stuck out a boot and deflected Cunha's shot past his keeper. He's £4.5mil and in just 0.4% of teams!
Harvey Barnes (MID) - The concern with Barnes over recent seasons has been whether he'd get on the pitch in order to deliver points. 92 goal involvements from 242 Premier League appearances is elite stuff. Bukayo Saka in a similar time frame has delivered 112 GIs from 231 league appearances but the big difference between the 2 is overall minutes. Barnes has played 14788 mins in his EPL career compared to Saka's 18016 mins which means they both deliver a GI once every 160mins. Of course Saka has padded those stats out with 13 EPL penalties in his career versus Barnes who has none. 5 starts this season and the full 90mins played in each is reason to give Barnes some attention while he remains at £6mil and in just 7.5% of teams. His net transfers have risen every week so far this season so whether he remains a differential for much longer is a key consideration.
To be honest after a 2 week break, it feels like we're starting the campaign all over again, something that any Spurs supporter would probably be quite happy to consider!
If you're hoping for some kind of analysis on the form of Premier League players while away on international duty then I'm afraid you'll need to look elsewhere because I've had very little interest in following those results.
Equally, whether performances in those games really translates back into club form is questionable. Will for example, Viktor Gykores get any additional minutes at Arsenal having scored in all 4 matches for Sweden? Can Bruno Fernandes deliver the kind of consistency he demonstrated for Portugal when he pulls on a United shirt?
Beyond the fact that competitions like the Nations League lack that real intensity to make them watchable sport, there have, of course, been other things going on in the world of football that have sucked the oxygen from the room.
Man City's 114 guilty charges by the Premier League seem likely to be a story that will roll on for months if not years (beyond the 8 years they have already been going on for).
What would be reasonable punishment for City?
It also adds a degree of farce to the remainder of the season. City are top of the league, the only side with a 100% record to date and yet, it seems ridiculous to consider that they won't receive a substantial points deduction.
City maintain their innocence and to date have done everything in their significant power to block this 8 year investigation from coming to a conclusion. Therefore, it also doesn't seem unreasonable to think that any sanctions that are imposed may not even be in place this season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XmpaClDlSw
City on appeal
If that were the case and City were later found guilty on appeal then beyond the 8 seasons we've already had where they cheated, you'd really have to question the validity of this season in particular. If the Premier League doesn't handle the matter effectively and efficiently then you do start to wonder about its future and the potential for break away leagues to develop.
This may be an unpopular opinion and I'm sure it will be amusing to watch City squirm while they have the rule book shoved up their their backsides, but honestly, who gives a shit if wealthy individuals or groups want to invest their money in a club? Isn't that generally considered a good thing for the industry as a whole?
Given that most clubs in the world would not be financially sustainable without the fees that they acquire from selling on the transfer market, why would you try and regulate how much money can flow into the sport in that manner?
I 100% agree that regulation needs to take place to keep the sport competitive on the pitch but that requires things like salary caps and limits on squad numbers not on how much investment comes into the game and the need therefore to hide that investment.
Rant over - let's go back to actually taking about football rather than money!
GW5 Results
Division 1
| Team | Hive Account | Score | Score | Team | Hive Account |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC McKane | @mckane | 58 | 47 | Seskobob | @deniskj |
| Sutter Kane | @suttercane | 55 | 68 | Ping Pong Frimpong | @pingpongfrimpong |
| YAGMAN FC | @Yagman01 | 47 | 48 | Suffragette City | @talesfrmthecrypt |
| Damola's Team | @george-dee | 63 | 49 | Ameerians | @amirtheawesome |
| Legion fc | @b0s | 60 | 57 | BlockchainFPL H2H | @blockchainfpl |
| Likodra FC | @teofilex11 | 41 | 51 | Red Cards of Rohan | @thoth442 |
| HaaBrunoLand | @earplugs | 59 | 58 | Blue Mooners | @leebennett |
| Hiveheadz | @borran | 49 | 47 | fpl.racibo.pl | @racibo |
| The Cella's | @blanchy | 54 | 40 | Tengo Rangers | @tengolotodo |
| Top Boy | @sperosamuel15 | 26 | 50 | Hungry Lions | @gvkanten |
Division 2
| Team | Hive Account | Score | Score | Team | Hive Account |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working 9 to 5 | @aunt-granny | 69 | 58 | Corner | @artniche |
| HB-EVWU75 | @kilvnrex | 65 | 51 | HappyBoys | @Happyboy1 |
| Division 1 | @omrys5 | 54 | 46 | Top of the Pops | @elvisking |
| El equipo de Roberto | @Kraken99 | 58 | 41 | It's Nice! | @workingdad |
| twicejoy | @twicejoy | 49 | 45 | Bennett's Boys | @olibennett |
| Wild XI | @wildlifelover | 62 | 35 | Cohlson | @cohlson |
| Dirty Leeds | @dirtyleeds | 54 | 41 | Six and the City | @princekwame |
| Steven's Team | @stevenson7 | 58 | 40 | Simcard FC | @akomoajong |
| Emeka4 | @Emeka4 | 48 | 69 | Fire Power | @emekaj |
| Blugrana | @ronnie10 | 60 | 38 | Jambo Villains | @stuartcturnbull |
| Blank | Blank | 48 | 40 | Stilgar_the_Fremen | @dune69 |
| Glasner Half Full? | @Doombot75 | 55 | 45 | Chocopram | @aaalviarez |
| shamzy FC | @shamzy | 52 | 50 | Herbae (Stevelight) | @Herbae |
| Kingsleyy | @kingsleyy | 47 | 54 | Hadji | @hadji |
| Tangram | @desro | 74 | 44 | Mikmai1 | @mikmai |
| The Fantasy Devils | @stranger27 | 36 | 51 | Large in the Rear | @chineduokafor |
| Los Magos del Balón | @el-maestro | 59 | 40 | PChip FC | @livinguktaiwan |
| FC Uwelang | @uwelang | 45 | 35 | Uwabbs battalion | @Uwabbs001 |
| Deals on Wheels | @derek-trotter | 45 | 37 | Skander's Team | @skanderh |
| Gen2shaid | @gentleshaid | 63 | 39 | dewabrata | @dewabrata |
| Solat | @reservedsingle | 55 | 74 | Acid's Team | @acidyo |
| Los Porro Hermanos | @jmehta | 33 | 44 | Dani Deuder FDA | @danideuder |
| Garuda XI | @aditya-p | 43 | 47 | The Mighty Fc | @Twicejoy-sports |
| Micheal87 | @Micheal87 | 44 | 43 | Form Factor | @publioscelta |
GW6 Fixtures
Division 1
| Team | Hive Account | Team | Hive Account | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seskobob | @deniskj | v | Top Boy | @sperosamuel15 |
| Hungry Lions | @gvkanten | v | The Cella's | @blanchy |
| Tengo Rangers | @tengolotodo | v | Hiveheadz | @borran |
| fpl.racibo.pl | @racibo | v | HaaBrunoLand | @earplugs |
| Blue Mooners | @leebennett | v | Likodra FC | @teofilex11 |
| Red Cards of Rohan | @thoth442 | v | Legion fc | @b0s |
| BlockchainFPL H2H | @blockchainfpl | v | Damola's Team | @george-dee |
| Ameerians | @amirtheawesome | v | YAGMAN FC | @Yagman01 |
| Suffragette City | @talesfrmthecrypt | v | Sutter Kane | @suttercane |
| Ping Pong Frimpong | @pingpongfrimpong | v | FC McKane | @mckane |
Division 2
| Team | Hive Account | Team | Hive Account | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solat | @reservedsingle | v | Working 9 to 5 | @aunt-granny |
| Los Porro Hermanos | @jmehta | v | Gen2shaid | @gentleshaid |
| Garuda XI | @aditya-p | v | Deals on Wheels | @derek-trotter |
| Micheal87 | @Micheal87 | v | FC Uwelang | @uwelang |
| Form Factor | @publioscelta | v | Los Magos del Balón | @el-maestro |
| The Mighty Fc | @Twicejoy-sports | v | The Fantasy Devils | @stranger27 |
| Dani Deuder FDA | @danideuder | v | Tangram | @desro |
| Acid's Team | @acidyo | v | Kingsleyy | @kingsleyy |
| dewabrata | @dewabrata | v | shamzy FC | @shamzy |
| Skander's Team | @skanderh | v | Glasner Half Full? | @Doombot75 |
| Uwabbs battalion | @Uwabbs001 | v | Blank | Blank |
| PChip FC | @livinguktaiwan | v | Blugrana | @ronnie10 |
| Large in the Rear | @chineduokafor | v | Emeka4 | @Emeka4 |
| Mikmai1 | @mikmai | v | Steven's Team | @stevenson7 |
| Hadji | @hadji | v | Dirty Leeds | @dirtyleeds |
| Herbae (Stevelight) | @Herbae | v | Wild XI | @wildlifelover |
| Chocopram | @aaalviarez | v | twicejoy | @twicejoy |
| Stilgar_the_Fremen | @dune69 | v | El equipo de Roberto | @Kraken99 |
| Jambo Villains | @stuartcturnbull | v | Division 1 | @omrys5 |
| Fire Power | @emekaj | v | HB-EVWU75 | @kilvnrex |
| Simcard FC | @akomoajong | v | Corner | @artniche |
| Six and the City | @princekwame | v | HappyBoys | @Happyboy1 |
| Cohlson | @cohlson | v | Top of the Pops | @elvisking |
| Bennett's Boys | @olibennett | v | It's Nice! | @workingdad |
GW6 Tips
A tough week ahead?
This has the makings of a tough week. Beyond the fact that the 2 week hiatus means its difficult to establish form, there are also not a huge number of attractive fixtures.Popular clubs for fantasy picks like City, Liverpool, United and Spurs go up against each other, meaning that their players have the potential to take away points from each other.
Outside of that, the fixtures to target can be found in London with Arsenal, Chelsea and Fulham playing at home but even then, I wouldn't be overly confident on the outcome of those games.
The Gunners were soundly beaten in their last match before the break with Brighton scoring 3 goals past their usually resolute defence. For now, you can chalk that up to a one-off blip with Arsenal having conceded just once in their 4 league games prior to that. However, Leeds will certainly be keen to test that theory and they come into the fixture unbeaten in the league this season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YtYpeFmigU
You have to go all the way back to 2003 for the last time Leeds got points from an away trip to Arsenal. The Aussie duo of Kewell and Viduka scoring to ensure that Leeds stayed up while Arsenal handed the title to Manchester United.
Chelsea meanwhile have been very entertaining to watch but have conceded at least twice in all 5 matches so far this season and have taken just a point from their last 3 games.
October feels like a crucial month for Xavi Alonso and his side with a home game this weekend against Bournemouth and 2 more big matches at Stamford Bridge against Spurs and United to follow.
The Cherries are winless to date but their overall performances have been much better than the league table suggests. Their expected points this season is 7.76, the 8th highest in the league. The difference between their xP and actual points (4.76) is the highest in the division.
If games finished at HT
The issues that have plauged both Chelsea and Bournemouth this season have been later in matches when they've tended to fade. Chelsea's first goal of the game has come on average in the 29th minute, Bournemouth's in the 34th ranking them 1 and 2 on that metric. In fact, if matches finished at half-time, Bournemouth would be top of the league! That they aren't, tells you all you need to know about how they are finishing games at present.
Fulham were unlucky not to get their first win of the season against United last time out and they also took a point at Anfield in the match prior to that. While both decent results, you feel that Arbeloa and his side need to start getting wins as they hit a sequence of matches against all 3 promoted clubs.
Away from home Fulham been very compact, conceding just once at Sunderland while at the same time failing to score themselves on their travels.
Ipswich do have 2 victories but defensively are still looking suspect with no clean sheet this season and only Chelsea having conceded more frequently than the Tractor Boys.
Ipswich matches have produced an average of 3.6 goals per game this season (3rd highest in the league) so this one could go either way. Will it produce attacking returns for FPL managers or is it worth looking at defenders should Fulham revert to type?
Best Differentials GW6
Gonzalo Garcia (FWD) - The Fulham forward scored on his debut in the league and while he's yet to add to that tally it's not for lack of involvement. He has a total xGI of 2.9 and has not returned a match performance of lower than 0.23 xGI. What's even more reassuring for FPL managers is that he's started all 5 games and now has a sequence of 3 matches in a row against newly promoted sides. At £6.1mil he's not exactly bargain basement but he is cheaper that a whole host of options at £6.5mil and he's in just 6.5% of sides, although that number is already climbing!David Affengruber (DEF) - Another Fulham player but not one on most people's radar. The Austrian centre-back was a late summer signing for the Cottagers but now appears to be Arbeloa's favoured option in the heart of defence ahead of FPL favourite Joachim Anderson. He's picked up def con bonuses in both his games so far and was agonisingly close to getting a 2nd clean sheet until he stuck out a boot and deflected Cunha's shot past his keeper. He's £4.5mil and in just 0.4% of teams!
Harvey Barnes (MID) - The concern with Barnes over recent seasons has been whether he'd get on the pitch in order to deliver points. 92 goal involvements from 242 Premier League appearances is elite stuff. Bukayo Saka in a similar time frame has delivered 112 GIs from 231 league appearances but the big difference between the 2 is overall minutes. Barnes has played 14788 mins in his EPL career compared to Saka's 18016 mins which means they both deliver a GI once every 160mins. Of course Saka has padded those stats out with 13 EPL penalties in his career versus Barnes who has none. 5 starts this season and the full 90mins played in each is reason to give Barnes some attention while he remains at £6mil and in just 7.5% of teams. His net transfers have risen every week so far this season so whether he remains a differential for much longer is a key consideration.